วันเสาร์ที่ 29 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Guerrillas battle rising costs

 

The armed struggle of the region's rebel forces is becoming more difficult as supplies of weapons and ammunition dry up and prices increase,

  

By: Suthep Chaviwan

Published: 21/12/2008 at 12:00 AM

Bangkok Post, Newspaper section: Spectrum

  

A few months ago, in a wooded camp controlled by an anti-Rangoon ethnic group across the Thai border, arms merchants were making a sales pitch. Among the weapons on offer was an M203 grenade launcher, as used by US soldiers in Iraq. But at a price of over 25,000 baht, they considered it too expensive for the guerrillas.

  

Like many others around the world, ethnic armed groups along the Thai-Burmese and Indian-Burmese borders are facing economic hard times.

 For arms smugglers, the heyday of the trade is gone. They now make do with small-scale transactions, intelligence officers tell Spectrum. 

It is not an exaggeration to say all armed ethnic groups fighting against Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as well as rebel groups in the northeastern states of India, are having difficulty getting weapons and ammunition to strengthen their forces, they say. 

Thai authorities, who say the armed ethnic groups do not have the resources to deal with major international arms traffickers like Viktor Bout share this view, the alleged Russian arms dealer arrested in Thailand in March this year. Mr. Bout is accused of selling arms to the Taliban in Afghanistan and rebel groups in Colombia. He remains in Thai custody pending further investigation. 

Over 20 years ago it was easy to buy weapons of war along the Thai-Cambodian or Thai-Laotian borders, thanks to the surplus from the Indochina War and the rival groups fighting in Cambodia. There were Russian-made Kalashnikov AK-47s, US-made M16s, light machine guns, hand grenades, RPG launchers, pistols, and even SAM-7 surface-to-air missiles. 

At the time it was easy to traffic these illicit items from the Cambodian and Laotian borders to the Burmese border, or to the southern Thai coastal town of Ranong on the Andaman Sea. Some of these weapons were delivered to resistance groups in other countries, such as the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. 

Such shipments are difficult to find now. Gunrunners reportedly collect from here and there in small quantities from rebels who have deserted their outfits and from individual ex-members of the now-defunct Communist Party of Burma. 

There are a dozen armed ethnic groups in Burma that are still fighting the SPDC for their independence and sovereignty. They include the Karen National Union, the New Mon State Party, the Shan State Army, the Kachin Independence Organisation, and the Chin Independence Organisation. 

These groups today have all kinds of small arms - M16s, Israeli-made Uzi sub-machine guns, Russian-made AKM (Automat Kalashnikov Modernzikovanny) assault rifles, and Chinese-made AK-47s, to name a few. 

But they are short on ammunition for their weapons, especially 7.62x39 ammunition for the AK-47 and 5.56mm ammunition for the M16. 

 

CHINESE FILL GAP! 

 

The shortage of AK-47 ammunition may be solved soon. According to rebel sources, Chinese arms experts are trying to manufacture 7.62x39 shells in a make-shift factory in the upper Shan state, close to the Chinese border. Prospective clients will certainly include the Burmese resistance groups in the region. 

They will also come from seven northeastern states of India, known as the Seven Sisters, inhabited by over 38.5 million people, most of them ethnic tribal groups. These states are bordered by China, Burma, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, and are connected to the rest of India by a narrow corridor of land. They share a 1,643km border with Burma. 

There are 15 ethnic tribes recognized by India, but more than 66 others in the region are not officially recognized. Over 40 rebel groups, both large and small, are operating against the Indian government's intends to create their independent nations. But they lack firepower. 

According to a well-informed source, arms and ammunition in these areas are very costly, several times more expensive than in Thailand, Cambodia, or Burma. AK-47s and M16s sell for between 100,000 and 170,000 rupees (73,300 to 125,000 baht) each, while a single bullet costs 120 rupees (88 baht) in the rebel-controlled areas. 

Even with such high-profit potential, it is hard to find sellers, but the goods are available from time to time at the underground market at the border trading area of Tamu-Moreh, close to India's Manipur state. 

The prices are higher further inside India's northeast provinces, but rebel groups in these states have more money than their Burmese counterparts as they can collect taxes from businesses. 

Prices are rising in the old Golden Triangle region as well and elsewhere along the Thai-Burmese border. Over 15 years ago, AK-47 and M16 ammunition could be purchased for around eight to 10 baht per round at Three Pagodas Pass, Mae Sot, and Umphang. But the same rounds these days cost 20 to 25 baht each, according to ethnic rebel leaders. 

Burmese rebels will not buy arms on Thai soil. They buy only from dealers who can deliver. 

Over 10 years ago, AK-47s and M16s cost 5,000 to 8,000 baht each in these rebel-controlled areas, but the price of the same items now is over 17,000 baht. The weapons, of course, are not new. 

The M203 grenade launcher is also available along the Thai-Burmese border. It is fitted to an M16 rifle (or an M4 carbine) and is a single-shot 40mm grenade launcher. It sells for over 25,000 baht. 

The Type 56 assault rifle (a Chinese copy of the Kalashnikov AK-47) and chemical explosives are also available along the frontier. 

Users of Type 56, however, say it does not meet international standards. After firing about 2,000 rounds, the barrel starts to bend and is deformed by heat and pressure, they say. It is not as strong as the original Russian-made Kalashnikov. 

China, through its Norinco Company - part of the People's Liberation Army - is one of the world's largest arms suppliers. Norinco has a branch office in central Bangkok, registered under the name H.D.Intertrade Co Ltd, located on soi Anumarn Rajathon, off Surawong road. 

H.D.Intertrade acts as Norinco's agent in Thailand, selling arms, ammunition, and heavy military hardware to the Thai armed forces. The Chinese tear-gas canisters used by Thai police to disperse anti-government protesters in front of parliament in October were purchased through this company, according to a reliable source. 

Although all governments of the region have been trying to solve their insurgency problems through various methods, including peaceful negotiation and ceasefire agreements, real peace is still a distant dream. 

Some of the rebel leaders say they agree to peace proposals, but peace must also come with independence and sovereignty. They believe peace talks and armed struggle must go hand-in-hand to bargain for what they want. 

That is why they are trying hard to secure more weapons to strengthen their forces, even though this is much more difficult than it has been in the past.